K33 analysts say bitcoin has entered a deeply oversold state after sustained selling pressure, reflected in weekly technical indicators.

Recent price action and indicators

Bitcoin recorded six consecutive weekly declines and roughly five months of net weakening, indicating prolonged downward momentum among holders.

The weekly relative strength index fell to 26.84, which K33 identifies as the third-lowest reading in the asset's recorded history.

Sources of selling pressure

K33 attributes the recent drawdown primarily to sales by long-term holders alongside a reduction of positions among institutional participants.

These dynamics contributed to constrained liquidity and persistent negative price pressure across multiple timeframes.

Historical outcomes after negative funding phases

The firm notes that episodes of negative funding have often preceded periods of recovery in prior cycles, according to their analysis of past data.

Specifically, K33 reports an average BTC return of 13% over 30 days following such phases, and returns reaching up to 100% over a 90–180 days horizon in several instances.

Context and caveats

K33 emphasises that oversold technical readings do not guarantee immediate rebounds, but historically they have increased the probability of upside reversion.

Timing and magnitude of any recovery depend on liquidity conditions, macro factors and market positioning, the firm adds.