JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin is increasingly seen as an alternative to gold amid the conflict with Iran, driven by inflows and on‑chain activity.

Market flows

According to JPMorgan, gold exchange‑traded funds have declined by about $11 billion over a three‑week period, reflecting outflows from traditional stores of value.

At the same time, net inflows into silver instruments have effectively disappeared, the bank reports, while crypto capital shows a contrasting direction.

Bitcoin activity in Iran

JPMorgan points to a marked rise in crypto activity inside Iran, where users increasingly move assets into non‑custodial wallets amid heightened restrictions.

The bank links these flows to operational frictions and limited access to conventional banking, suggesting peer‑to‑peer transfers and local trading volumes have increased accordingly.

Evidence and caveats

JPMorgan highlights capital inflows and on‑chain metrics as indicative of shifting preferences, but it underscores that these patterns are sensitive to geopolitical developments and liquidity conditions.

The analysis does not assert that bitcoin has fully replaced precious metals as a defensive asset, but it notes a clear change in investor behaviour under current stress.

Broader implications

Under conditions of sanctions, capital controls and payment disruptions, digital assets can provide alternative settlement avenues, the bank concludes, altering local and regional demand dynamics.

Observers should monitor exchange flows, wallet activity and regional trading to assess whether the observed shift is structural or temporary, according to JPMorgan's assessment.