Bernstein estimates the forecasting market could expand to $1 trillion by 2030 driven by diverse wagering and analytics segments.

Near-term projection and growth pace

According to Bernstein, by 2026 the market is expected to reach $240 billion, a rise of +370% year-on-year and an average annual growth of about 80%.

Primary demand drivers

The firm identifies four main categories fueling expansion: sports betting, political forecasting, cryptocurrency markets and macroeconomic outlooks.

• Sports betting platforms use probabilistic models to set odds and monetize predictions at scale.
• Political forecasting markets aggregate dispersed information and shift prices with new public data.
• Crypto market forecasts reflect rapid asset volatility and heightened retail and institutional interest.
• Macroeconomic models and scenario analysis support trading and strategic decision-making across sectors.

Shift toward corporate adoption

Bernstein expects a gradual move from retail and speculative users to corporate clients deploying forecasts for risk hedging and operational planning.

Enterprises may integrate predictive markets and analytics into treasury, procurement and strategic risk functions to manage exposure more precisely.

Implications for the ecosystem

As institutional demand grows, infrastructure needs such as data quality, model governance and compliance frameworks will likely become central to market maturation.

Market participants and regulators will need to address transparency and systemic risks while platforms scale their products and services.