Analysts at CoinGecko examined BTC price data from 2013 through 2026 and found that U.S. federal holidays historically show higher next-day returns for Bitcoin.

Aggregate findings

CoinGecko compared average next-day returns for purchases executed on federal holidays and ordinary days, focusing on multi-year historical patterns.

• Holiday next-day average: 0.77%.
• Ordinary-day next-day average: 0.19%.

Strongest single-day effect

The largest calendar-day effect occurred on 01.01, where the average next-day return reached +2.01%, and BTC rose in 11 of 13 observed years.

Potential explanation

CoinGecko links the pattern to the so-called "January effect," when investors typically re-enter risk assets after December sell-offs, lifting prices in early January.

Long-term perspective

On multi-year horizons the difference largely vanishes: when holding BTC for more than one year, the calendar day of purchase has little influence on the ultimate return.

Methodology note

The study covered daily BTC data from 2013 to 2026 and evaluated average next-day performance across calendar dates and holding periods, as reported by CoinGecko.