Indonesia's communications ministry has blocked prediction market Polymarket after markets opened betting on the early resignation of President Prabowo Subianto.

Reason for block

The ministry cited a market that on 21.05.2026 allowed wagers whether the president would leave office by 31.05.2026, 30.06.2026 or 31.12.2026.

Trading on that market exceeded $ 46,000, according to published figures at the time of the restriction.

At the time of the block the market priced an early resignation at 1% by 31.05.2026 and 2% by 30.06.2026.

It assigned a 18% chance of departure before 31.12.2026.

“Polymarket is an online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.”

A ministry representative said the activity involved wagers and speculation on uncertain outcomes and therefore violated Indonesian law.

Market details and scope

Polymarket enables real-money trading on event outcomes, a model that regulators in several jurisdictions view as falling within gambling rules.

Indonesia joins more than thirty jurisdictions that have restricted access to Polymarket amid concerns over legality and consumer protection.

Regulatory context

The communications and digital technology ministry implemented the block under authorities that oversee digital services and online content distribution across the country.

Regulators globally have questioned whether real-money prediction markets constitute gambling under local statutes and require specific oversight.

Polymarket did not immediately provide a comment on the block, according to available reports.