Egor (Bizzi), an expert at Union working on Polymarket, outlines a trading approach that has produced recurring monthly returns.

Background of the market and premise

According to Egor, the specific Polymarket market regularly undervalued Claude at the start of each month due to reliance on public announcements and benchmark releases. Market participants followed headlines rather than examining how the underlying arena.ai leaderboard determines winners, he says.

Strategy mechanics

The approach targets the divergence between prevailing narratives and measurable results, a method Egor describes as narrative arbitrage. Traders identify gaps between sentiment-driven pricing and outcomes produced by objective evaluations on the leaderboard.

• Entry timing: initiate positions early in the month when Claude receives limited credit from the market.
• Resolution process: positions resolve according to the arena.ai leaderboard results and Polymarket settlement rules.
• Position sizing: the strategy has been applied across various sizes without dependence on concentrated capital allocations.

Performance and track record

Egor reports consistent monthly returns in the range of 25% to 40%, citing a typical outcome near 30% for the observed period. He notes the approach was executed for approximately three months with similar relative results across cycles.

Current considerations for June

The trader outlines potential entry ideas for June based on anticipated patterns of underestimation at month start and stresses the importance of understanding the leaderboard mechanics before trading. The analysis focuses on process and observable outcomes rather than promotional claims.