President Donald Trump publicly supported prediction markets and opposed state-level attempts to ban platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Federal versus state jurisdiction

He argued that the federal regulator, the CFTC, should determine the rules for this sector so markets can operate under uniform standards.

The debate intensified after several states sought to restrict or prohibit prediction markets, saying they resemble gambling rather than regulated financial contracts.

Trump’s statement

Trump framed the issue as one of federal leadership and consistent regulation rather than a matter for individual states to resolve independently.

«Under my leadership we are creating rules that will become a model for the states»

— Trump said.

He also reiterated that the United States already enjoys the status of "crypto capital of the world" and must preserve its leadership in related markets and technologies.

Regulatory and industry implications

If the CFTC asserts primary oversight, prediction-market platforms would face federal licensing and compliance requirements aligned with derivatives rules.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi provide event-based contracts that allow users to trade on political, economic and other outcomes, attracting regulatory scrutiny.

The controversy has prompted discussions among stakeholders, industry groups and regulators about how to balance consumer protection with the need for consistent national standards.

Outlook

The jurisdictional dispute will influence how prediction markets operate in the United States and could affect where firms base their services and legal strategies.