Analyst Merlijn the Trader on X argues that Ethereum follows a recurring three-stage cycle observed in historical market phases.

Three-phase model

The framework describes a sequence of distinct stages that repeat across multiple multi-year cycles and shape price dynamics.

• Manipulation — a sharp sell-off after a peak, which resets market sentiment and often precedes prolonged consolidation.
• Accumulation — an extended sideways phase during which many participants become disillusioned and trading volume remains subdued.
• Distribution — a pronounced impulsive rally that drives the asset toward new historical highs as demand re-emerges.

Current phase and target

According to the graphic model, Ethereum is emerging from the prolonged Accumulation stage and entering the Distribution leg of the cycle.

If the pattern repeats the previous cycles of 2016–2018 and 2019–2021, the analyst places the prospective peak near $15 000.

Context and caveats

The scenario is presented as a pattern-based projection rather than a certainty, reflecting historical regularities rather than guaranteed outcomes.

Market participants should note that timing, amplitude, and external factors can materially alter the evolution of any cyclic pattern described here.