A CFTC investigation examined trades on prediction markets tied to specific words or phrases in Donald Trump’s speeches, and reported profit outcomes.

Background on the platform

Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market that allows users to trade contracts on event outcomes, with transaction records available to oversight bodies.

Allegations and role of the operator

Gabriel Perez, who has served as Trump’s teleprompter operator since 2016, was identified in the investigation as a trader on mention-based contracts.

According to the CFTC inquiry, Perez reportedly earned more than $100 K trading on markets tied to whether the president would utter particular words.

What the probe notes

• The probe links internal access to advance visibility of speech content with trades executed on mention-focused contracts.
• Regulatory review focused on whether privileged information available to staff was used in trading decisions on prediction platforms.
• Findings cited by the CFTC include profit figures and trading patterns associated with specific speech events.

Context and limitations

The investigation’s public descriptions emphasize transactions and reported earnings without asserting criminal convictions in the matter at this stage.

Markets that resolve on specific spoken words raise compliance and conflict-of-interest questions for participants who have privileged access to draft remarks.