Analysts say current indicators do not yet confirm a bitcoin market bottom, citing weak spot demand and sustained U.S. selling pressure.

Market signals

Glassnode reports a gradual exhaustion of sellers, but according to analysts a key indicator has not reached the historical threshold for forming a bear-market low.

• Binance reserves rose to 667 500 BTC, the highest level since February and about 50 000 BTC above April readings.
• CryptoQuant notes that current price action is largely supported by futures, while spot-side demand remains negative.
• Coinbase Premium has stayed negative for roughly 57 days, the longest continuous stretch on record and a potential sign of pressure from U.S. participants.

Analysts emphasize that these signals together point to a market still reliant on derivative flows rather than broad-based buying in spot markets, which raises doubts about the strength of any rally.

Outlook

For a more sustainable recovery, analysts expect a return of spot demand and reduced reliance on futures-driven moves; without that shift, volatility may persist.

Market participants will be watching spot flow metrics, exchange reserves, and the Coinbase Premium for confirmation that selling pressure has eased and a durable bottom is established.