Arthur Hayes said that a fresh wave of central-bank liquidity could push bitcoin toward $250,000–$500,000 under specific crisis conditions.

Scenario and potential triggers

Hayes argues that a real financial crisis would be required to force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to sharply expand liquidity and monetary support.

He singled out structural problems in the banking systems of Europe and Japan as possible triggers that could prompt coordinated emergency easing across major central banks.

Market dynamics and timing

According to Hayes, cooling momentum in the artificial intelligence investment cycle could shift demand toward assets perceived as hedges against fiat depreciation.

In this framework, he projects bitcoin might retest or exceed its all-time high before the end of 2026, driven by a surge in capital seeking protection from currency weakness.

Over a longer horizon, Hayes continues to view the possibility of bitcoin reaching $1 million and gold rising to $15,000, reflecting persistent asymmetric upside scenarios.

Altcoins and portfolio picks

Among alternative cryptocurrencies, Hayes highlighted ETH and ENA as among his preferred positions for the next market cycle, citing their risk-reward profiles.