Bitwise has increased its base-case forecast for bitcoin in 2036 from $1.3 mln to $1.6 mln, citing institutional demand and constrained supply.

Forecast drivers

The firm points to large-scale capital inflows from institutional investors as the primary driver behind the revised valuation, with existing supply dynamics amplifying price effects.

Bitwise frames the forecast around bitcoin capturing a significant portion of global store-of-value allocations, combined with modest penetration into institutional investment pools.

Required market share assumptions

For the $1.6 mln base case, bitcoin must take 25% of the global store-of-value market and reach 1% of institutional investment assets, according to the firm.

These adoption thresholds underpin the valuation model and reflect long-term reallocations of capital toward scarce digital assets over the next decade and beyond.

Scenarios for 2036

• Pessimistic — $131 000
• Base — $1.6 mln
• Optimistic — $3.67 mln

Outlook and risks

Analysts note that even if the firm’s central projection materializes, the path for bitcoin will likely include pronounced drawdowns and periods of elevated volatility.

The forecast does not imply a smooth appreciation; rather, it assumes a multi-year reallocation of assets and intermittent market stress events that could compress valuations temporarily.

Implications

Achieving the base-case requires sustained institutional engagement and clearer frameworks for allocating capital to digital assets, alongside continued scarcity of BTC supply.

Market participants should therefore regard the projection as conditional on the adoption assumptions laid out by Bitwise and the broader macro-financial context that will unfold by 2036.