The middle class is contracting due to diverging income dynamics, rising asset prices and technological change affecting labour demand.

Definition and thresholds

The World Bank classifies the middle class as people earning about 1.5 times the poverty threshold, placing them above the poorest households but below the wealthy elite.

In Russia, the subsistence minimum from 01.01.2026 is ₽18 939, which implies a middle class threshold of roughly ₽28 000 per month by that rule.

Key drivers of the squeeze

Housing prices have far outpaced wages: over the past ten years, residential property values rose by 120%, while salaries increased by no more than 40%.

Returns to capital have grown substantially; large corporations multiplied market valuations manyfold, whereas wage earners captured a comparatively small share of that growth.

Technological disruption is reshaping occupations: routine and repeatable tasks are increasingly automated, altering demand for many mid-skilled roles.

Scale and vulnerability

Oxford researchers estimate that 47% of occupations could disappear within 10–20 years, affecting large segments of current employment.

Financial resilience is limited: around 65% of Russians report lacking savings sufficient to cover loss of primary income, leaving many exposed to shocks.

At the global level, the share of output captured by people in wealthy countries has shifted from approximately 50% in 1990 to about 75% today, reflecting changing distribution patterns.

Areas of relative resilience

Certain human skills remain difficult to replace: empathy-driven services, genuinely creative work and uncommon problem-solving tasks will continue to require live professionals for the foreseeable future.

Given current trends, workers and policymakers face a choice: adapt skills toward these resilient domains or manage increased economic vulnerability as traditional middle-class roles evolve.