Analysts at Compass Point believe the current bear cycle is approaching its final stage, but bitcoin could still dip lower.

Analysts' outlook

Compass Point’s base scenario places the bottom in the range of $60 000–68 000, provided there is no major crisis in the US equity market.

The firm warns that further downside remains possible if broader market stress materializes, which could push sentiment sharply lower.

Support zones and holder concentration

They label the $70 000–80 000 corridor an "air pocket" with minimal support, noting fewer than 1% of long-term holders purchased BTC there.

By contrast, approximately 7% of all bitcoins held by long-term investors were acquired in the $60 000–68 000 zone, making that band strategically important.

ETF flows and downside triggers

Additional selling pressure came from bitcoin-ETF outflows of about $3 billion since 15 January, which the analysts say weigh on near-term liquidity and sentiment.

Compass Point adds that more than half of investors are currently underwater, and the next critical technical level sits at $55 000.

A break below that level, the firm assesses, would require extreme conditions comparable to those seen in 2022.

Conclusion

The analysts conclude that risk of further decline has not vanished, while market indicators suggest the bear phase may be nearing its terminal stage.

Investors should monitor holder concentration in the $60 000–68 000 band, ETF flows, and broader US equity market stress as determinants of short-term direction.