Arthur Hayes presents an essay titled "iOS Warfare" linking U.S. military actions, Federal Reserve easing and demand for $BTC as a store of value.

War and monetary easing

Hayes notes that since 1985 U.S. presidents repeatedly engaged militarily in the Middle East, and each episode coincided with Fed easing measures.

He cites the Persian Gulf conflict of 1990, when the Fed lowered rates in November and December 1990, explicitly referencing the war as a complicating factor.

After the 2001 attacks, the Fed convened an emergency session and cut rates by 50 b.p., Hayes recalls, as policy pivoted to support the economy.

Iran in 2026 and political cover

Hayes argues that U.S. policy toward Iran after the 1979 revolution has long included regime-change objectives, and the present dynamics provide political cover for aggressive action.

He suggests this cover could make the Fed more willing to pursue significant monetary easing to finance wartime expenditures and stabilise markets.

Historical parallels and consequences

Hayes recalls the 2003 Iraq invasion beginning in March, noting the Fed kept rates at 1% by year-end to support the recovering economy.

He links cheap money in 2003–2004 to an inflated mortgage market that imploded in 2008, estimating the Iraq war cost at $2 T and related crisis impact at $10-20 T.

Public spending on veterans, Hayes adds, rose about twice as fast as the federal budget during those years, compounding fiscal pressures.

Hayes's tactic for $BTC

Hayes recommends loading up on $BTC after the Fed initiates rate cuts or large-scale asset purchases linked to war financing, but he cautions patience regarding timing.

He acknowledges the cycle could break if a conflict ends quickly or inflation becomes too high for the Fed to ease without risking credibility.