Tyler Cowen, a professor of economics at George Mason University, articulated risks to the middle class in his 2013 book.

Core thesis

Cowen argued that the economy would not eliminate jobs wholesale, but it would erode the category of average, middle-tier occupations over time.

Observed shifts

Recent labour-market signals align with that view: entry-level AI incomes reportedly fell by 12–15% according to Stanford, while Gartner noted that 20% of companies reduced more than half of their middle-management ranks.

The labour market has polarised, with data engineers and AI specialists capturing outsized compensation, and many new roles concentrated in low-paid service work.

Forecasters predict that by 2027 for every 7 new jobs created, 8 positions will be eliminated, hitting accountants, cashiers and data-entry operators especially hard.

What has not occurred

Cowen expected policy responses such as unconditional basic income to emerge as automation advanced; that outcome has not materialised at scale so far.

«Labour made man out of the ape»

Debate continues about whether a mass transition to non-work consumption-based economies is plausible, and political appetite for universal transfers remains limited.

Consequences and adaptation

Career ladders have weakened in many sectors, prompting younger workers to favour project-based, freelance and gig arrangements over predictable corporate progression.

Geographic concentration of opportunity persists, making access to hubs like Dubai, Singapore and New York a premium for many high-skilled roles.

Cowen’s diagnosis is presented as a structural mechanism rather than an indictment: those who stop relying on guaranteed middle-tier roles and build adaptable skills appear better positioned.