Analysts at CryptoQuant reported that the Apparent Demand metric for BTC fell to -147,000 BTC, the weakest reading since the start of the year.

What the metric represents

The Apparent Demand indicator measures the difference between new bitcoin issuance and coins held untouched by long-term holders for over one year.

By comparing fresh supply to coins inactive for longer than a year, the metric signals shifts in underlying spot market demand relative to ongoing issuance.

Market implications

CryptoQuant analysts interpret the current decline as a sign of subdued spot buying, which may limit bitcoin’s ability to sustain gains without derivative-driven flows.

If spot buyers do not re-enter the market, bitcoin could rely predominantly on futures and options activity rather than broad retail or institutional spot purchases.

Historical context

The report notes that similarly deep pessimism in prior cycles has often coincided with turning points that later attracted long-term investors back into the market.

Such episodes have previously offered accumulation opportunities for investors with extended horizons, even when short-term metrics signaled weakness.

Outlook from the source

According to CryptoQuant, without renewed spot demand it will be challenging for bitcoin to achieve sustained upward momentum relying solely on derivatives activity.