Reuters and anti-corruption organization ACDC published a joint study detailing widespread insider trading activity on the Polymarket prediction platform. The report quantifies wallets, bet patterns, and a high success rate in military-related markets that amplified the observed effects.

Research findings

The investigation identifies 556 wallets that placed targeted, large-size wagers on low-probability outcomes and related market events. Of those, 152 wallets repeatedly placed stakes on military-focused markets and achieved a reported win rate of 97.2%.

Mechanics of replication

According to the study, a typical sequence begins with an initial wager from an informed wallet, followed by automated and large manual copies that magnify the original position. The report documents cases in which bots and high-net-worth traders duplicated trades, often deploying around $200–$300K per replication instance.

Real-time transmission and market impact

Investigators describe how copied trades effectively disseminated sensitive information through market prices, enabling rapid exploitation of forecasting markets and translating private signals into public value changes. That transmission accelerated price moves and increased returns for early participants.

Methodology and attribution

Reuters and ACDC combined on-chain transaction analysis with pattern recognition to group addresses and infer coordinated behavior across wallets. The report specifies clustering criteria and bet-timing correlations used to attribute activity to the identified network.

Regulatory and platform considerations

The study highlights questions about platform safeguards, monitoring of automated trading, and the challenges of distinguishing legitimate speculation from information-driven wagering. It notes potential implications for market integrity and the need for enhanced surveillance measures.