CryptoQuant analysts report that the UTXO in Loss indicator has returned to the 27–30 % zone, recalling market dynamics from May 2022.

Indicator dynamics and interpretation

The UTXO in Loss metric measures the share of bitcoin outputs currently below their acquisition price, which signals unrealized losses across holders. CryptoQuant notes the recent move back into the 27–30 % corridor, a range that in prior cycles coincided with notable risk reassessments by participants.

Possible scenarios

Analysts outline two primary scenarios that follow such a reading and shape near-term price sensitivity.

• If the indicator stabilizes above ~30 %, selling pressure could intensify and the market would face a higher probability of moving to lower price levels.
• If it remains within 27–30 %, that outcome may indicate that a substantial portion of downside has already been priced in and acute panic has not yet emerged.

CryptoQuant’s conclusion

CryptoQuant concludes the current reading does not necessarily indicate the onset of panic, but rather a test of how much fear the market has already absorbed. The firm characterizes the situation as a decision zone where market participants evaluate positions and reactions to potential further weakness.