Three states declared victory after a last‑minute de‑escalation, while a 15‑day tactical pause was agreed and markets reacted sharply.

Timeline of threats

On 28.02.2026, the United States and Israel launched initial strikes against Iran, and Tehran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. In peacetime, about 20% of global oil and gas shipments transit that waterway, and oil briefly exceeded $115 per barrel.

Former president Trump repeatedly issued deadlines and shifted them several times. He posted on Truth Social a message using direct language aimed at reopening the strait.

«Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.»

On 07.04.2026 he published another post warning that an entire civilization could be destroyed that night, setting a deadline of 20:00 Washington time. Less than twelve hours remained before that deadline.

«A whole civilization will die tonight, and it will never be recovered. I do not want this, but it will probably be so.»

Last‑hour developments

About one and a half hours before the deadline, Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif asked Trump to grant Iran a two‑week pause, and Iran agreed to reopen the strait for a fortnight. Trump then announced a bilateral suspension of strikes.

«I agree to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran for two weeks. This is a bilateral ceasefire.»

Official victory claims

• Trump called the outcome a complete and final victory, declaring 100 percent success without doubts.
• Iran also claimed victory, saying its 10‑point plan underpins the agreement and secures withdrawal of foreign forces, sanctions relief, compensation, and continued control of the strait plus enrichment rights.
• UAE framed the outcome as a national defensive victory.

Why this is not a lasting peace

The pause is clearly tactical and limited to fifteen days. Repeated deadline shifts by Trump have weakened U.S. leverage, while Iran understands that external pressure has limits and thus gained room for negotiation.

Israeli media reported that the United States committed to demanding full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, a condition that Tehran is unlikely to accept at the negotiating table. The presence of enriched uranium on Iranian soil increases incentives to maintain or develop a deterrent.

Iran reportedly prefers Senator J. D. Vance as an intermediary for talks in Islamabad, rather than direct U.S. presidential mediation.

Market reaction and outlook

Before the truce, $BTC fell to $68K and oil traded above $115. After the announcement, oil dropped about 16%, $BTC rose to $72,700, S&P 500 futures gained more than 1%, and gold reached $4.838.

Negotiations in Islamabad are scheduled to begin on Friday. Any leaks from the talks will move markets, and oil will remain volatile until the strait’s reopening is repeatedly confirmed and transit stabilises.

If, after two weeks, parties present a concrete plan rather than renewed escalation, the oil risk premium may unwind and risk assets could rally. If talks fail, oil prices may return above $100 and risk assets could decline.

Summary

The agreement effectively buys 15 days of reduced hostilities and preserves Iran’s immediate control over the Strait of Hormuz and enrichment activities. Domestically in the United States, the pause may be portrayed as a win, while strategically U.S. negotiating leverage appears diminished.