Former military engineer and investor Radigan Carter outlines four market phases linked to a regional conflict and to energy infrastructure damage.

Context and symbolic dynamics

Carter argues the killing of a regional leader has outsized symbolic meaning for segments of Shiite Islam and will harden resolve beyond conventional deterrence.

«Death is not defeat. Surrender to injustice is defeat.»

Phase 1 — Denial

Markets currently price in a quick resolution as volatility reacts to political messaging and to statements from central bankers and leaders.

Phase 2 — The six‑week trigger

Carter maps a six‑week cascade: in weeks one–two fuel prices rise, including a sharp move in oil; weeks three–four raise logistics costs.

By weeks five–eight higher transport costs reach consumers and push food, building materials and other goods noticeably higher, he warns.

Monetary and supply implications

According to Carter, inflation prints in May–June will reflect these shocks regardless of subsequent diplomatic developments, undermining hopes for near‑term rate cuts.

He notes that Jerome Powell is likely to remove optimism about easing until core inflation shows sustained decline.

Energy infrastructure: Ras‑Laffan and recovery timelines

Carter, who worked on plants at Ras‑Laffan, reports Qatar declared force majeure on gas exports after damage to that complex, affecting global LNG flows.

He emphasizes that repairs for high‑pressure processing facilities take years rather than months because specialized parts are custom made and shipped from Asia.

Phase 3 — Summer corporate adjustment

Corporate reports in July–August will begin to show real economic damage; unemployment may rise while companies accelerate automation and AI deployment.

Phase 4 — Reversal toward late 2026–2027

Carter expects a policy pivot, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates possibly under electoral pressure, and demand support returning by late 2026–2027.

He believes energy independence will become a bipartisan priority in Congress, comparable in scale to post‑9/11 defense spending for its political salience.

The AI paradox

Automation will be adopted faster as firms seek cost relief, improving productivity in some companies but failing to fully offset aggregate demand losses.

Carter cautions that AI adoption may help individual firms survive while broader equity multiples compress and sector indices fall.

Planning and adaptation

Rather than predicting exact outcomes, Carter proposes building a preparedness map to adapt to supply and monetary regimes as they evolve.